llms

An under-appreciated facet of LLMs is just how *weird* they are.

Claude, ChatGPT, and pretty much every other application built on top of an LLM have a system prompt. This is a set of instructions that drives the application’s behavior. The good folks at Anthropic recently released the system prompts used for the Claude application (see link below).

Anyone building applications on top of LLMs should examine Claude’s system prompts to understand how “prompt engineering” is done in production.

Take this example:

“Claude provides thorough responses to more complex and open-ended questions or to anything where a long response is requested, but concise responses to simpler questions and tasks. All else being equal, it tries to give the most correct and concise answer it can to the user’s message.”

This is how “programming” in an LLM-powered world works. As a recovering Java programmer, this blows my mind 🤯.

Here is the thing—we are going to see wild new software experiences built on top of LLMs in the coming years.

But this will only happen once software engineers shed decades of iterative or declarative approaches to “programming” and learn how to work with LLMs.

A paradigm shift will be required to move us beyond the idea that LLMs are just another fancy API that we can integrate into existing applications.

We call working with LLMs “prompt engineering,” but there isn’t much engineering here. This art or skill should probably be called “LLM Whispering” or “LLM Negotiation.” Because what we will be doing isn’t engineering so much as negotiating or working with a very strange peer.

Google and Stanford cooked up something intriguing—a virtual village called Smallville, populated by agents running on the #ChatGPT API.

The researchers witnessed interesting emergent behavior, from coordination and communication to downright adorable interactions among the village’s wholesome residents.

Smallville even comes with cute graphics. But beyond the little sprites organizing Valentine’s Parties (yes, that’s what happens in Smallville): this experiment made me think of my time, a long time ago and in a City far away, in Capital Markets.

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Sidebar

Derivatives are a vast market. And derivatives, like options, are priced using a somewhat arcane mathematical field called Stochastic Calculus – the Black-Scholes equation being a famous example.

The underlying assumption is that markets behave randomly, and Stochastic Calculus provides a way of modeling this behavior. But – this approach can have problems. Even the famous creators of the Black-Scholes equation spectacularly blew up their fund LTCM.

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Enter Agent Based Modelling (ABM): a nifty but niche approach that relies on simulating the behavior of market participants via Agents. The idea is that these simulations provide a better insight into how the market may evolve under different conditions.

Smallville shows us that LLM-driven agents are a possibility. Is it a stretch to envision specialized LLMs, trained on financial data, being used in ABM to predict how a particularly temperamental market might behave?

If you are a quantitative analyst on a sell-side firm looking to market-make a particularly exotic derivative, an LLM-powered approach may be viable. Or at least less boring than reaching for the Stochastic Calculus textbook.

The future might find traders armed with their own simulated worlds to forecast the price of, oh, let’s say, a derivative on the price of an exotic tulip of a non-fungible JPEG of a smoking Ape.. who knows?

PS – The painting is called “The Copenhagen Stock Exchange” by P.S. Krøyer. You can see why an agent-based approach to simulating capital markets is a .. possibility..